February Update

My system is currently at +350 after bottoming at -825 on Feb. 6th.  In my last post, I mentioned the obvious trades of going long Yen, Treasuries, and Gold and shorting the Dollar and Equities. The first three were big winners while the short Dollar trade was basically a wash. The only trade that didn't really work was shorting stocks which is peculiar since USD/JPY and Treasury yields didn't really perk up with equities. So something is amiss as equities continue to diverge from these other asset classes. But I have cashed in substantial profits and am now awaiting the market's direction. It appears that the market wants to eventually head towards 1900 while USD/JPY sentiment is now less positive but still too positive which may mean another leg lower in the next month below 100. If equities do move higher to 1900, Treasury yields should get back in line and move above 3%. However, there may be more storm before the calm with emerging markets which should roil markets between now and the Fed decision on March 19th.